Bosnian-Herzegovinian War of Independence 1992-1995

Yugoslavia was already in the throes of disintegration by the time the federal republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina began plotting its declaration of independence. Slovenia had broken away in 1991; Croatians were still battling the Yugoslavian People’s Army in their attempt to achieve independence and some of the fighting spilled over into Bosnia-Herzegovina territory. The situation within the federal republic tensed as the multi-ethnic population began to fragment into Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), Bosnian Croats, and Bosnian Serbs by the end of 1991 while the government began moving towards a declaration of independence. A referendum held on February 29 and March 1, 1992 produced overwhelming popular support for independence but the results simply reflected the fact that Bosnian Serbs boycotted the vote. Nonetheless, on March 3, 1992, the government of Bosnia-Herzegovina declared independence from Yugoslavia. Violence broke out in the days that followed but it was contained as negotiations proceeded.

On April 6, 1992, the United States and the countries of the European Community (EC; now the European Union) formally recognized the independence of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnian Serb forces, with at least material support, began shelling Sarajevo and besieged other cities with majority Bosniak populations. The Bosnian Serbs, with assistance from the Yugoslavian People’s Army (by then a predominately Serbian force), launched offensives against the allied forces of Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats (assisted by the Croatian Army) which resulted in their control of about seventy percent of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the end of May. On the ground, the Bosnian Serb offensive stalled at this point.

Reports of ethnic cleansing by Bosnian Serb forces soon followed as Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats were expelled from territory held by Bosnian Serbs, or killed. Other reports implicated Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats of doing the same in their territories though to a lesser extent. By June 1992, the ethnic cleansing produced over two million refugees – creating the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. Evidence of genocide emerged too and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolved to punish war crimes in February 1993. In March, a no-fly zone was declared over Bosnia-Herzegovina. In May 1993 the UNSC designated various safe havens for Bosniaks and United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces, already deployed in Croatia, were mandated with their supervision.

Meanwhile, in the wake of military defeats by the Bosnian Serbs during 1992, tension mounted between Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats. Serious fighting broke out by January 1993. The governments of Bosnia-Hercegovina and Croatia attempted to quell the fighting in March and April but the violence escalated over the summer. Bosnian Croats were steadily worn down the larger and better equipped Bosniaks. The Croatian government threatened to intervene directly in the warfare early in January 1994 and some Croatian regulars were reported to be in Bosnia-Herzegovina by this time. Talks mediated by the United States produced an agreement in March on forming a federation of Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats, leading to an end to this war within a war.

International attention on this war was driven by not only the scale of the killings and refugees but the historical significance of the land as being the origin of World War I. Numerous peace plans were proposed. Bosnian Serbs, however, refused to concede any territory. The UNSC did not have the necessary support for a military intervention. NATO forces enforced the UN no-fly zone and, for the first time in its history, on February 28, 1994, engaged in combat by shooting down Serbian aircraft over Bosnia-Herzegovina. NATO airstrikes against Bosnian Serb and Yugoslavian targets began later in the year; more intensive bombing of Bosnian Serbs followed the Srebrenica massacre in July 1995.

By then Bosnian Serbs were already on the defensive and pressured to agree to peace. On August 4, 1994, the Yugoslavian government announced it would cut ties to the Bosnian Serbs due to international pressure. On November 11th, the US government announced it would stop enforcing the arms embargo on Bosnia-Herzegovina allowing the Bosniaks and as well as Croatia to acquire the armaments necessary to overcome the Bosnian Serbs. By the summer of 1995, Bosnian-Herzegovinian and Croatian military forces began a series of offensives which substantially reduced territory held by the weakened Bosnian Serbs. During September, talks produced an outline of a peace agreement and further negotiations resulted in the Dayton Peace Agreement initially agreed to on November 21, 1995 and signed by the governments of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Yugoslavia on December 14, 1995. NATO forces arrived to replace the UN peacekeepers and implement the agreement.

Notes

[1] There is no consensus on how to classify this war. Correlates of War (CoW) divides the war into an inter-state war (215: April 7, 1992 to June 5, 1992), ending when the Yugoslavian army withdrew, and an intra-state war (878: June 6, 1992 to December 14, 1995). Most sources classify the war as a civil war because the war was mainly fought among groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina even though the war was over independence from Yugoslavia.

[2] The best estimate of total battle deaths of the population of Bosnia-Herzegovina is 100,000 (Calic; Tabeau and Bijak). Figures here (based on the latter) have been rounded to the nearest thousand and include 1,000 Croatian and 2,000 Yugoslavian battle deaths. The primary difference between the two estimates is the distribution of military/civilian battle deaths. Calic reports 62% military and 38% civilian; Tabeau and Bijak report 46% military and 54% civilian. The distribution of civilian battle deaths is based on the proportions from Calic.

[3] CoW reports 500 Croatian battle deaths in the inter-state war (215).

[4] CoW reports 1890 Yugoslavian battle deaths in the inter-state war (215).

References

Brownstone and Franck, 522, 526, 528; Calic, 115-153; COW215, 877/878; Kohn, 65-6; Tabeau and Bijak, 187-215.

Marie-Janine Calic. Ethnic Cleansing and War Crimes, 1991-1995. Charles W Ingrao; Thomas Allan Emmert (Editors). Confronting the Yugoslav Controversies: A Scholars' Initiative. Purdue University Press. 2013.

Ewa Tabeau, Jakub Bijak. War-Related Deaths in the 1992-1995 Armed Conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Critique of Previous Estimates and Recent Results. European Journal of Population, 21(2-3). 2005.

Category

Inter-State War^[1]

Region

Eastern Europe

Belligerents

Croatia, Yugoslavia, Bosniaks, Bosnian-Croats, Bosnian-Serbs, NATO, UN

Dispute

Territory, Governance, Interests

Initiation Date

April 6, 1992

Termination Date

December 14, 1995

Duration

3 years, 8 months, 9 days
(1348 days)

Outcome

Negotiated Settlement
(Bosnian victory)

Fatalities

Total: 51,000/52,000^[2]
Bosniaks:28,000/42,000
Bos. Croats: 6,000/2,000
Bos. Serbs: 14,000/6,000
Croatia: 1,000^[3]
Yugoslavia: 2,000^[4]

Magnitude

5.0