The October War 1973

Frustration with the territorial status quo, with Israel holding substantial parts of Egypt (the Sinai peninsula) and Syria (the Golan Heights), and the unwillingness of the superpowers (USA and USSR) to seek a negotiated solution rather than continuing the stalemate, encouraged Egypt and Syria to prepare for a new war against Israel. The governments also believe there was a need to achieve a military victory over Israel in order to secure public support for and international credibility to negotiate directly. Although indications of war preparations in Egypt and Syria were evident as much as a year before war broke out, other interpretations were just as plausible. In Israel, a sense of confidence in the military capabilities of the country (established by the results of the Six Day War), resulted in a willingness to be skeptical about interpret intelligence reports suggesting the possibility of a looming attack. Clear indications of Egyptian and Syrian war preparations after September 28, 1973, were thus understood as defensive actions in anticipation of Israeli reprisals for a Palestinian terrorist act on that day. Not until the morning of October 6, 1973, hours before the coordinated Egyptian-Syrian offensives began, were Israeli officials convinced that war was imminent and the mobilization of the reserves ordered.

For Arabs, it was the fasting month of Ramadan, and for Israel it was Yom Kippur. Egyptian forces launched a successful surprise attack across the Suez Canal; the crossing of the canal, an astounding feat of technology and military acumen, took only four hours to complete. At the same time, in coordination with the Egyptians, the Syrians carried out an equally successful strike on the Israeli held Golan Heights; the Syrian war effort was supported by contingents from Iraq, Morocco, Cuba, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel was shocked and unprepared for the war. The deployment of modern anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles along both fronts significantly reduced the Israeli advantages in air power and armor. Israel suffered serious losses and soon depended on American deliveries of more weapons and munitions to continue the war. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union began resupplying Egypt and Syria as their losses also mounted.

Israel launched its first counter-offensive against the Syrian front, on October 8th and it pushed the Syrians back well east of the 1967 cease-fire line by October 15th but the Israeli commitment of forces on the Egyptian front made any further advance in Syria impractical. On the Egyptian front, the Israel counter-attack began on the night of October 15th-16th. Paratroops and an amphibious assault established a bridgehead on the African side of the Suez Canal. The United Nations (UN) called for a cease-fire on October 22nd. Egypt accepted the cease-fire, but Israel, alleging Egyptian violations of the cease-fire, kept advancing until it completed the encirclement of the Egyptian army to the south of the bridgehead before accepting the UN cease-fire on October 24, 1973, by which time the USSR was threatening direct intervention and Syria reluctantly accepted as well.

After several months of negotiations, during which sporadic fighting continued, Israel reached a disengagement agreement in January 1974, whereby the IDF withdrew across the canal and Israeli and Egyptian troops were separated in the Sinai by a buffer zone occupied by the UN Emergency Force. Israel signed a similar agreement with Syria on May 31, 1974, whereby Israel withdrew to the 1967 cease-fire line in the Golan Heights and a United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) occupied a buffer zone between Israeli and Syrian forces. On September 4, 1975, after further negotiations, the Second Sinai Disengagement Agreement was signed between Egypt and Israel that widened the buffer zone and secured a further Israeli withdrawal to the east of the strategic Gidi and Mitla passes.

Internationally, the war became an example of the danger of a regional war escalating into a superpower confrontation. The October War cost Israel its self-confidence in its military superiority. Although neither side had won a clear-cut victory, but for the Egyptians, it was a victory nonetheless because it showed Israel was not invincible. In Syria as well, the war was regarded as a victory and as a result of the disengagement agreement, Syria recovered parts of the Golan Heights it initially lost to Israel.

Notes

[1] Clodfelter do not report on Saudi Arabian participation as listed by Correlates of War.

[2] Clodfelter reports on a Moroccan brigade which is not listed by Correlates of War.

[3] Clodfelter reports on a Cuban brigade which is not listed by Correlates of War.

References

Clodfelter, 1051-61; Egypt - A Country Study; Israel - A Country Study; Kohn, 27; Syria - A Country Study.

Category

Inter-State War

Region

West Asia

Belligerents

Egypt, Saudi Arabia^[1], Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Morocco^[2], Cuba^[3]

Dispute

Territory

Initiation Date

October 6, 1973

Termination Date

October 24, 1973

Duration

19 days

Outcome

Unresolved Truce
(UN intervention)

Fatalities

Total: 14,819
Egypt: 7,700
Saudi Arabia: 100
Israel: 2,838
Jordan: 23
Syria: 3,500
Iraq: 278
Morocco: 200
Cuba: 180

Magnitude

4.2