Eritrean-Ethiopian Border War 1998-2000

The leaderships of Eritrea and Ethiopia, in 1998, were insurgent allies in the overthrow of the government of Ethiopia in 1991, while Eritrea was part of Ethiopia. Tensions began to surface when the Eritreans expelled over 100,000 Ethiopians during 1991-1992, mainly because of their association with the former Ethiopian regime. Negotiations over the future of Eritrea resulted in a 1993 referendum in which Eritreans overwhelmingly supported independence, although economic ties between the two countries, including Eritrean use of the Ethiopian currency, remained strong. The Ethiopian leadership may have hoped the two countries would eventually reunify; delimitation of the border failed to take place. A boundary commission was finally formed to address unresolved border disputes a few months after a skirmish in August 1997. Meanwhile, Eritrea also announced in August that it would introduce its own currency and proposed Ethiopia agrees to equivalent valuation and joint recognition of their mutual currencies. Ethiopia rejected the currency proposal in October and required future trade to be conducted in hard currency (for example, US dollars). By December, Ethiopia had introduced new currency notes to prevent the Eritreans from exchanging their notes. Trade and communications ties between the two countries were effectively severed by the end of the year.

Tensions were already high when several Ethiopian officials were killed along the disputed border near Badme on May 6, 1998. The Joint Border Commission met in the capital of Ethiopia two days later and an agreement was reached that was supposed to resolve the issue. Instead, on May 12, 1998, Eritrean forces numbering about 9,000 troops occupied most of the disputed territory in the vicinity of Badme and routed the Ethiopian militia and security forces available to defend it. Ethiopia responded by mobilizing its armed forces. During the following weeks, fighting escalated from small unit actions to exchanging tank and artillery fire. A joint Rwandan-American mediation proposed a withdrawal of forces that was accepted by Ethiopian on June 4th but Eritrea refused. On June 5th, Ethiopian fighter-bombers attacked the airport in the Eritrea capital of Asmara; Eritreans retaliated with an airstrike on the airport of Mekele. Sometime later both countries committed to ending the bombing of cities. The Organization of African Unity (OAU) followed up by endorsing a plan to end the war, based on the American-Rwandan proposal, during its meeting from June 8th to 10th. Heavy ground fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea ended about June 11th. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) voted unanimously, on June 26, 1998, for Eritrea and Ethiopia to accept an immediate cease-fire; both countries welcomed Resolution 1177. By the end of June 1998, the intense fighting had killed hundreds, including civilians. The lull in the fighting, nominally a cease-fire, continued as both sides fortified the front, mobilized more forces and acquired new military equipment.

Although negotiations continued, Eritrea still refused to accept the OAU version of the US-Rwanda plan for a cease-fire and withdrawal from disputed lands. The relative quiet on the frontlines was finally broken when, on February 22, 1999, the Ethiopian armed forces launched a massive military offensive aimed at the capture of Badme. Over the next five days, Ethiopian forces broke through the Eritrean defenses and advanced about 10km capturing Badme. On February 27th the Eritrean government conditionally accepted the OAU plan for ending the war but Eritrea demanded compensation for the Eritreans deported from Ethiopia before implementation. After a two-week lull, during which both sides questioned their respective commitment to the cease-fire, heavy fighting resumed mid-March and continued until July 14th when agreement in principle was reached on a revised OAU plan for a cease-fire and the withdrawal from disputed territory.

Interminable talks on implementing the OAU plan were abruptly ended on May 12, 2000, when Ethiopia resumed the offensive along the entire front. Eritrean defenses were breached in a matter of days and Ethiopian troops occupied town after town in a relentless advance that captured considerable areas of western Eritrea. Although the combat probably failed to entirely break Eritrean resistance, negotiations resumed in Algeria on May 29th, with Algerian mediation (support by the EU and US) , and Eritrea unconditionally accepted the OAU plan for a cease-fire and withdrawal from all disputed territory occupied since May 6, 1991, reflecting Ethiopian demands. The Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities was signed on June 18, 2000, ending the war. Talks continued and a comprehensive peace agreement was signed in Algiers, Algeria, on December 12, 2000.

Notes

[1] Numerous sources consider the start of the war to be the May 6, 1998 incursion but the fact of a meeting and a tentative agreement being reached after the incident suggests the later initiation date.

[2] Correlates of War (CoW) reports an end date of December 12, 2000 (when the Algiers Peace Agreement was signed) but fighting ceased at the latest by June 18, 2000 when the cease-fire agreement was signed and UN peacekeepers accepted.

[3] Estimates of fatalities for this war generally range from 70,000 to 120,000. Even though there were large population transfers resulting in a large number of refugees, and there were some attacks on cities during the war, civilian casualties are not generally believed to be substantial. In assessing the veracity of higher estimates of battle deaths, such as the 120,000 CoW presents, it might be useful to consider the scale of forces deployed and the image of war presented by the media. To begin, there seems little doubt very few battle deaths occurred during the initial period of warfare from May 1998 to January 1999. Heavy fighting occurred from February through July 1999 followed by another lengthy pause to May 2000. In other words, although the war lasted for over two years, most of the combat took place over five months in 1999 and one month in 2000. To accept a claim of 120,000 battle deaths implies a reasonable 1:3 estimate of wounded to be about 360,000 and total casualties of 480,000 which seems very high considering the total armed forces available to both sides at any given time probably numbered about 300,000. The other aspect of casualty bias in this war concerns media influence. Numerous reports refer to World War I style, trench warfare and human wave assaults implying an image of constant, fruitless, and static combat. But news reports of the campaigns do not suggest such warfare during the periods of active fighting. In both 1999 and 2000, the Ethiopians broke the Eritrean lines in days and were making advances (probably limited by their logistical capabilities as much as anything); the factual news reports just do not match the image of this war generated by reporters.

[4] The more-or-less official Ethiopian estimate of battle deaths is provided here and may be considered a low estimate. Eritrea claims an estimated 100,000 Ethiopians were killed, constituting a high estimate.

[5] This is the official Eritrean estimate of battle deaths. Ethiopian sources claim 67,000 Eritreans were killed, constituting the high estimate.

References

COW219; Falola and Oyebade, 143; Kebebew, 2-5; Kohn, 164; Lata, 369-88; Plaut, 125-9; Shinn and Ofcansky, 147-9.

Toyin Falola, Adebayo O Oyebade. Hot Spot: Sub-Saharan Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa. Greenwood. 2010.

Leenco Lata. The Ethiopia-Eritrea War. Review of African Political Economy, 97. 2003.

Martin Plaut. Towards a Cold Peace? The Outcome of the Ethiopia-Eritrea War of 1988-2000. Review of African Political Economy, 87. 2001.

David H Shinn, Thomas P Ofcansky. Historical Dictionary of Ethiopia. Scarecrow Press. 2004.

Category

Inter-State War

Region

East Africa

Belligerents

Eritrea, Ethiopia

Dispute

Territory, Interests

Initiation Date

May 12, 1998^[1]

Termination Date

June 18, 2000^[2]

Duration

2 years, 1 month, 7 days
(769 days)

Outcome

Negotiated Settlement
(Ethiopian victory)

Fatalities

Total: 53,000^[3]
Eritrea: 19,000^[4]
Ethiopia: 34,000^[5]

Magnitude

4.7