Cenepa Valley War 1995

The border between Ecuador and Peru has been disputed since the nineteenth century. A ten day war fought in 1941 resulted in a severe military defeat for Ecuador and resulted in a settlement favoring Peru. The Rio de Janeiro Protocol of 1942 was signed by Ecuador and Peru as well as the four guarantor powers of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and the United States. Most of the 1,600km boundary was readily demarcated on the basis of the agreement but an American aerial survey, completed in 1946, discovered a geographical anomaly in the area of the Cordillera del Condor and the Cenepa River, about a 78km span, so this section of the border was left undetermined when the results were released to the governments in February 1947. In 1960, rather than attempt to resolve the question of the anomaly through negotiations, the Ecuadoran government declared the protocol null and void because it supposedly could not be fully executed; Peru maintained the border had been set by the Rio Protocol. Periodic outbreaks of violence took place along the disputed boundary in the following decades.

Beginning in 1991, Ecuador began constructing military outposts in the disputed territory in the Cenepa River Valley. Although Peru seems to have been aware of these provocations earlier on, nothing was done until 1994 when Peruvian military patrols began appearing at the outposts to warn the Ecuadoran forces to withdraw. There is no evidence either country attempted to find a diplomatic solution and it has been suggested that the militaries in both countries may not have been acting in concert with their governments. Whatever the case may be, on January 26, 1995, a Peruvian patrol tried to remove the Ecuadoran troops from one of the outposts by force and fighting ensued and the Peruvians were forced to withdraw.

Both countries mobilized their armed forces and open warfare broke out in the Cenepa Valley. About 5,000 Ecuadoran and Peruvian troops were concentrated into an area of 140 square kilometers while much larger land and air forces began to mass along the rest of the border as well as naval deployments along the coast. Some of the Ecuadoran outposts in the disputed territory were captured but at least two of the outposts were able to resist Peruvian assaults. There was a substantial risk of the limited warfare in the Cenepa Valley escalating because a quick and decisive result within the area seemed unlikely. Both sides seemed determined to avoid this outcome. Surprisingly, the Ecuadoran president, Sixto Duran Ballen, asked for an emergency meeting of with the guarantor powers of the Rio Protocol; on February 13th, the Peruvian president, Alberto Fujimori, declared a unilateral cease-fire and supported the call on the guarantor powers to help resolve the dispute. In fact, Ecuadoran and Peruvian forces continued to fight in the Cenepa Valley during the following weeks as negotiations proceeded in Brazil. The Itamaraty Agreement was signed on February 17th and reaffirmed on February 28th before fighting ended on February 28, 1995 and the cease-fire took effect on the following day.

The tactical success of the Ecuadoran troops in the outposts has been credited as giving Ecuador a basis on which to make pragmatic concessions to Peru about the while claiming victory. On October 26, 1998, the two countries signed a peace treaty defining the 78km stretch of border, creating a committee to resolve other boundary issues peacefully, and setting down terms for bilateral trade and navigation rights. At the same time, both countries announced substantial arms purchases that could be interpreted as having the potential to impact the outcome of future confrontations.

Notes

[1] Officially, Ecuador claims 34 military battle deaths and 89 wounded; Peru claims 50-60 military battle deaths and 400 wounded. Peru also claims Ecuadoran casualties numbered 350. Most sources suggest the government tallies of their own casualties are too low. It is frequently reported that casualties numbered between 200 and 300. Other estimates include 120 killed and 500 killed. One source claims total casualties between 1,000 and 1,500. Another source claims total casualties of between 200 and 1,200 with the higher figure being more probable. Correlates of War claims 550 Ecuadoran and 950 Peruvian battle deaths – three time the next highest estimate (assuming casualty is being used conventionally to mean killed and wounded).

[2] Assuming the Peruvian claim of Ecuadoran casualties is not intended to minimize losses, and considering the historical 1:3 ratio of killed to wounded, this suggests an upper bound of 117 Ecuadoran battle deaths (rounded to nearest hundred).

[3] Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any official Ecuadoran claim about Peruvian casualties. However, assuming the highest overall casualty claim of 1,500, deducting only official Ecuadoran killed and wounded, and recalling the 1:3 ratio of killed to wounded, yields an estimate of 344 Peruvian battle deaths (rounded to nearest hundred). Higher Pervian battle deaths may seem reasonable given they were attacking entrenched Ecuadoran troops but it must be emphasized this number only represents an upper bound of battle deaths based on available information.

References

BBC; COW217; Fouskas, 35-6; Kohn, 158; Palmer, 109-48; Simmons, 10-4.

Vassilis K Fouskas (Editor). Politics of Conflict: A Survey. Routledge. 2011.

David Scott Palmer. Peru-Ecuador Border Conflict: Missed Opportunities, Misplaced Nationalism, and Multilateral Peacekeeping. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, 39(3). 1997.

Beth A Simmons. Territorial Disputes and Their Resolution: The Case of Ecuador and Peru. United States Institute of Peace. 1999.

BBC (Spanish) http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/spanish/latin_america/newsid_7274000/7274638.stm

Category

Inter-State War

Region

South America

Belligerents

Ecuador, Peru

Dispute

Territory

Initiation Date

Jaunuary 26, 1995

Termination Date

February 28, 1995

Duration

1 month, 3 days
(34 days)

Outcome

Negotiate Settlement
(Ecuadoran victory)

Fatalities

Total: 400^[1]
Ecuador: 100^[2]
Peru: 300^[3]

Magnitude

2.6