War in Afghanistan 2001-present

The persistent warfare in Afghanistan was again radically transformed with the intervention of the American-led international coalition on October 7, 2001, in support of opposition to the Taliban government (and its al-Qaida allies). Preparations began only weeks after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Instead of deploying large conventional armed forces for an invasion, the American plan (Operation Enduring Freedom) called for inserting small teams of special forces and CIA operatives to assist fighters of the Northern Alliance (an association of various anti-Taliban groups) while American and British air forces conducted massive airstrikes targeting Taliban defenders in coordination with the Northern Alliance. Only about 2,000 American, British and Australian troops were on the ground in Afghanistan during the time. Taliban resistance to the offensive was remarkably weak and forces of the Northern Alliance entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, on November 13th, in defiance of American operational plans. Northern Alliance forces continued advancing in all directions, driving the Taliban out of the city of Kandahar, the base of Taliban support in southern Afghanistan, on December 6, 2001, bringing Taliban rule to an end.

The leadership of the Taliban and al-Qaida fled across the border to Pakistan and the lack of forces on the ground allowed most of their supporters to do the same or disappear into the Afghan countryside. Meanwhile, a meeting of Afghan opposition groups (and countries with a significant interest in the outcome, such as the United States) was held in Bonn, Germany, with the express intention of creating an interim government. In Afghanistan, a concentration of Taliban and al-Qaida forces was identified at Tora Bora later in the December and an Afghan-led force defeated it, killing some and scattering the rest. Additional troops from the United States and its NATO allies began to arrive in larger numbers. Another concentration of Taliban and al-Qaida fighters was identified in March 2002 in the Shahi-i-Kot Valley and it too was defeated (Operation Anaconda); the battle was one of the last conventional war operations conducted by the Afghan fighters in alliance with coalition forces. The war was successful but not decisive. For the rest of 2002, and the immediately following years, the war took on the character of a winnable counter insurgency.

On May 1, 2003, the US Secretary of Defense understandably announced the end of “major combat” in Afghanistan even though American troop levels were increasing beyond 10,000 during this time. Coalition military battle deaths were consistently well below one hundred and Afghan civilian battle deaths fell from 450 in 2003 to 230 in 2004. The new government of Afghanistan appeared to be functioning, new military and police forces were being trained and social and economic development projects were underway. Insurgents seemed to be insignificant when compared to the challenges of rebuilding Afghanistan. In fact, the Taliban was preparing to launch a renewed insurgency from its sanctuaries in the border regions of Pakistan but also from within outlying Afghan provinces where there were few coalition or government forces.

A lack of coalition forces on the ground was being addressed through the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) which gradually expanded its area of responsibility from Kabul to all of Afghanistan as well as its troop strength from 2003 to 2006. Not all troops committed to ISAF were authorized by their governments to engage in combat (beyond self-defense). Most of the counter insurgency fighting was carried out by troops from a few countries including the US, the UK, Canada, Denmark and the Netherlands. Evidence suggesting the insurgents had not been defeated appeared in the grim battle death statistics of 2005 when, for the first time, more than one hundred coalition troops were killed and civilian battle deaths doubled from the previous year. The insurgency intensified over the next five years and the Taliban gained control over substantial parts of Afghanistan. In order to meet the challenge, coalition forces expanded too. By the end of 2010, there were over 120,000 American and other ISAF troops deployed in Afghanistan and military battle deaths peaked with a total of 710 (498 American) coalition troops killed during the year.

Attempts to reach a negotiated settlement failed. Over the next four years, the level of violence was dramatically higher than any time since the war began in 2001. Thousands of Afghan civilians were dying each year and hundreds of coalition troops. Domestic political considerations, in the United States and numerous other coalition countries, made the seemingly endless continuation of the large troop deployments increasingly unacceptable. By 2012 coalition force levels were dropping as Afghan forces took increasing responsibility for combating the resurgent Taliban. The Afghan government committed to taking over full responsibility for security in all of Afghanistan by 2014. On December 28, 2014, ISAF officially ceased combat operations and disbanded; it was replaced by the NATO Resolute Support Mission (RSM) intended to train, advise and assist the Afghan security forces and initially numbering about 13,000 troops.

The success of the Afghan armed forces in its efforts to subdue the Taliban insurgency has been openly questioned. There is little doubt the Taliban and other insurgents, including affiliates of al-Qaida and Islamic State, continue to dominate or contest significant parts of the country and Afghan forces are suffering casualties at a rate that may not be sustainable. Attempts at negotiations have so far proven fruitless. Any further expansion of international military forces (or their employment in combat) is, at least, questionable and probably doubtful.

Notes

[1] For the purposes of the data presented, Afghanistan here is inclusive of the Afghan fighters allied with coalition forces from October 7, 2001 and the troops and civilians supporting the government formed after December 6, 2001.

[2] Militants here is inclusive of the government of Afghanistan prior to December 7, 2001 and the Taliban, al-Qaida, Islamic State and other groups opposed to the coalition forces.

[3] The coalition countries listed here are the ten with the highest casualties. The coalition included: Albania, Australia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, China, Congo, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Iran, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Malaysia, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States, Uzbekistan. Not all of these countries contributed troops or engaged in combat.

[4] There is a general consensus that Afghanistan has been in a constant state of war since 1978. On October 7, 2001, US coalition transformed the existing war against the Taliban government into a war of the Taliban against the government.

[5] Correlates of War divides this war into an inter-state ending on December 22, 2001 (when the new government is formed) and an extra-state war starting the following day and continuing.

[6] Total coalition battle deaths up to and including 2018 numbered 3559 which are included in the 98,000 military battle deaths. Total estimated battle deaths numbered 139,000, inclusive of 2018.

[7] Afghan military/civilian battle deaths are estimates based on Crawford, UNAMA and SIGAR. Afghan military battle deaths are not consistently reported and the estimates are projected from the data available. Furthermore, the reported Afghan military battle deaths are consistently very high relative to reported wounded.

[8] Militant military battle deaths are mainly based on Crawford and projected to 2018. There are no sources providing anything more than vague and unconfirmed estimates. Militant civilian battle deaths are those UNAMA associates with government/coalition actions.

[9] The USA civilian battle deaths refer to military contractors and they are included in the total military battle deaths.

References

CFR - US War in Afghanistan; COW225, 481; Collins , 45-52, 63-88; Crawford, 1-31; EB - Afghanistan War; icasualties.org; Shahrani, 715-22; SIGAR, UNAMA.

Joseph J Collins. Understanding War in Afghanistan. National Defense University Press. 2011.

Neta C Crawford. War-related Death, Injury, and Displacement in Afghanistan and Pakistan 2001-2014. Costs of War. Watson Institute for International Studies. 2015.

Nazif M Shahrani. War, Factionalism, and the State in Afghanistan. American Anthropologist, 104(3). 2002.

Category

Inter-State War

Region

Central Asia

Belligerents

Afghanistan^[1], Militants^[2], Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, UK, USA and others^[3]

Dispute

Governance

Initiation Date

October 7, 2001^[4]

Termination Date

Ongoing^[5]

Duration

18+ years

Outcome

Undetermined

Fatalities

Total: 98,000/41,000^[6]
Afghan.: 38,000/26,000^[7]
Milit.: 55,000/15,000^[8]
USA: 2,417/1,767^[9]
UK: 455
Canada: 157
France: 85
Italy: 58
Denmark: 53
Germany: 53
Australia: 41
Poland: 40
Netherlands: 25

Magnitude

5.1