Armenian-Azerbaijani War 1991-1994

On February 20, 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region of the Azerbaijan Soviet Social Republic (SSR) resolved to be transferred to the Armenian SSR with the USSR. The resolution was revolutionary. Within a month, Armenians and Azerbaijanis began to violently press their territorial claims on the enclave, populated mainly by Armenians, surrounded by Azerbaijan. Clashes also occurred over a mainly Azerbaijani populated Nakhichevan, bordering Iran and separated from Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. The last attempt at compromise failed in May 1988. By the fall, Armenia was forcibly expelling Azerbaijanis from its territory as Armenians fled Azerbaijan. An earthquake struck Armenia on December 7, 1988, killing 24,817 in a matter of minutes but it had a negligible impact on the ethnic purges; the forcible population exchange continued into 1989. The level of violence subsided although the tension persisted.

By January 1990, Soviet control of Azerbaijan was rapidly disappearing as militants called for joining Iran (the Islamic Revolution) while extremists attacked any Armenians they could find (enraged by news of a separate line for Nagorno-Karabakh in next economic plan of the USSR). The Red Army was sent into the capital city of Baku on January 20th and a state of emergency declared. Order was restored in Azerbaijan through the occupation, including the restive Nagorno-Karabakh. In an effort to appease Azerbaijan, the Soviet government removed the separate line for Nagorno-Karabakh from the economic plan. The political leadership of Armenia, in the meantime, sought to undermine Azerbaijani authority in the enclave by aiding and abetting the development of an armed insurgency. Soviet armed forces, supported by Azerbaijani militia, intervened at the end of April 1991 and about a dozen people were killed. The level of violence produced dissent within the Soviet leadership but it also resulted in the Nagorno-Karabakh secession leadership seeking a compromise with Azerbaijan by June. The rapid collapse of the Soviet Union over the last six months of 1991 radically altered the course of events.

On August 30th, Azerbaijan declared independence; on September 2nd, the secessionist leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence; and, on September 21st, Armenians voted in favor of independence (something scheduled long before and a mere technicality by this point). Whether or not these political acts of defiance of Soviet authority would succeed was rendered a moot question with the formal dissolution of the USRR on December 26, 1991. Armenia and Azerbaijan were now independent and, without the Soviet military presence to prevent violent escalation, the new countries were de facto at war over the future of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Neither country had an army available to fight a war; both relied on police forces, irregulars and mercenaries from the former Red Army to do battle. Weapons were acquired from the dispersing military units of the Soviet Union still present in the area, by purchase or through force. Initially, Armenia and the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh were more successful in organizing armed forces but Azerbaijan had a numerical and material advantage. Armenians in the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, were surrounded by Azerbaijani villages and they launched an offensive with support from former Soviet troops to clear one of those villages on February 25, 1992. A massacre ensued. Azerbaijan responded with a siege of Stepanakert, lasting throughout the spring, which was broken in May by the Armenian conquest of Shusha. The Iranian attempt to mediate failed as a result of this Armenian battlefield success. During this period, former Soviet troops, including Russians, Ukrainians, and Byelorussians, fought on both sides of the war more-or-less on the basis of where they had been based before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Part of the Azerbaijani military advantage during 1991-1992 may be attributed to the larger number of Soviet troops and equipment based there. The Azerbaijani gradually lost this advantage from late 1992 as the former Soviet troops were pulled out and their bases closed.

On March 27, 1993, Armenia launched an offensive toward Kelbajar with the intention of establishing a land corridor with Nagorno-Karabakh. The town was captured on April 3rd and hundreds of refugees died from exposure as they fled. Military success led to diplomatic crisis for Armenia since the occupied territory was not part of the disputed lands of Nagorno-Karabakh. International pressure to withdraw resulted in Armenian government to support a peace plan sponsored by Russia, the United States, and Turkey. The leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh resisted because there were indications the Azerbaijan was in the midst of a political crisis. That crisis developed into a power struggle in June and the Armenians exploited it by launching a military offensive on June 27th. Over the next four months Azerbaijan lost about 5,000 square kilometers of territory. About 350,000 Azerbaijani fled before or were forcibly expelled by the conquering Armenians.

The new leadership in Azerbaijan promised to continue fighting in October 1993 while the Armenians began a final offensive that secured their southern border and displace tens of thousands more civilians. By now, both sides had built large conscript armies. In December 1993, Armenians faced determined resistance to their continued advance. By January 1994, Azerbaijan launched a massive counter-offensive, recapturing some of the Armenian conquests, but the attack stalled as Armenians reinforced and took the offensive again in mid-February. Each new offensive was now resulting in significant casualties (unlike the minimal losses experienced by both sides in the campaigns of previous years). In May 1994, during an intergovernmental meeting in Kyrgyzstan, attended by representatives from Armenia, Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan, a cease-fire was more-or-less agreed upon although it took several days for the parties to all formally sign the agreement. On May 12, 1994, a cease-fire was established and it has remained in effect more-or-less although skirmishes have occurred.

Notes

[1] Correlates of War reports this as an intra-state war (872: December 26, 1991 to February 5, 1993) and an inter-state war (216: February 6, 1993 to May 12, 1995). Other sources do not make such a distinction since there was a constant and substantial presence of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh throughout.

[2] Armenian battle deaths are consistently reported by de Waal (6,000 military and civilian) and Zurcher (6,000 military and 2,500 civilian). Zurcher tabulates only 6,000 Armenians in Table 6.2 which for Azerbaijanis reports both military and civilian battle deaths.

References

de Waal, 284-5; COW216, 872 EB - Nagorno-Karabakh; Kohn, 34; Zurcher, 179-80.

Thomas de Waal. Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War. New York University Press. 2003.

Christoph Zurcher. The Post-Soviet Wars: Rebellion, Ethnic Conflict, and Nationhood in the Caucasus. New York University Press. 2007.

Category

Inter-State War^[1]

Region

West Asia

Belligerents

Armenia, Azrbaijan

Dispute

Territory

Initiation Date

December 26, 1991

Termination Date

May 12, 1994

Duration

2 years, 4 months, 17 days
(869 days)

Outcome

Unresolved Truce
(Armenian victory)

Fatalities

Total: 17,000
Armenia:6,000^[2]
Azerbaijan: 11,000

Magnitude

4.2